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Trade Date: 11/25/2014 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 126-31-127-005, 127-015-127-04, 127-07-127-08, 127-12-127-16

ZN S1-S4: 126-24-126-25, 126-195-126-21, 126-16-126-175, 126-08-126-12

ZN/ZB Comments: Not much news OVN. The tendency for the week of Thanksgiving is for higher prices in the financials. And the mkt is pointed higher again this morning. The auction pattern this year favors higher auction prices for each auction. And this looks like the case today too. The financial meme remains to buy the breaks. Like the long side of the mkt again today. Want to buy into weakness in anticipation of a good 5 Y auction. Little news out OVN. The biggest piece of news out OVN was from the OECD which cut their projections for growth for the world’s economy. Interest rates will remain low and another QE will be implemented when necessary. Today’s news is mixed w/some old news and some new news. The direction of the ES, Consumer Confidence and the 5 Y auction should drive today’s trading. Today’s news: GDP 2nd rev. is expected at 3.3%, Deflator at 1.3%, Chas Shiller at 4.7%, FHFA Housing Price Index at +.4%, Consumer Confidence at 96.5 and Richmond Fed at 16. See resistance at 127-00/04 and support at 126-20/24 to get started this AM. First sell is 126-31/127-03 followed by 127-07/11. Plan on a cover at 126-25 OB. First buy is 126-21/25 followed by 126-13/17. Plan on an exit at 126-31 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 142-156-142-17, 142-20-142-23, 142-28-142-29, 143-00-143-03

ZB S1-S4: 142-06-142-09, 142-00-142-02, 141-27-141-29, 141-20-141-24



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ES R1-R4: 2071-2073, 2075-2077, 2080-2082, -

ES S1-S4: 2064-2066, 2060-2061, 2055-2057, -

ES Comments: The ES continues to slowly grind higher w/little selling outside of day trade shorts and profit taking from swing traders. G-20 global support and jawboning by the Fed and ECB are ready to be employed on any sign of mkt weakness. News that normally brings in selling remains tabled for now. Today’s news could bring in new buying, if better than forecast. And if not, the mkt expects the Fed to compensate. Since 3/2009 the strategy that has worked has been to buy into weakness. And I can’t see any reason to change that strategy at the moment. Today’s news could add some volatility (hope so), if off of the consensus, but shouldn’t change the mkt’s direction. Today’s news: GDP 2nd rev. is expected at 3.3%, Deflator at 1.3%, Chas Shiller at 4.7%, FHFA Housing Price Index at +.4%, Consumer Confidence at 96.5 and Richmond Fed at 16. The easiest trade to see is failure to take out 2073. If it holds, profit taking and day trade shorts should enter the mkt and take it back to support. Best support is at 2055/60, but could be as high as 2065 to start this morning’s trading. The mkt has made you pay up to get long early in the session on most days. Support has usually been tested later in the session. Want to buy into weakness this morning to see if 2073 can be taken out. If it holds, can trade from the short side of the mkt. The easiest trade to see is to sell failure to take out 2073/75 followed by 2079/81. Plan on a cover at 2065 OB. The highest risk trade is a buy at 2065/67, IMO. You are paying up to get into an early long. The second buy will be at 2060/62. Plan on exits at 2072 OB.

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