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Trade Date: 8/1/2015 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
ZN R1-R4: 126-19-126-20, 126-235-126-24, 126-27-126-295, 127-00-127-04

ZN S1-S4: 126-12-126-13, 126-07-126-085, 1`26-035-126-04, 125-28-126-02

ZN/ZB Comments: Today completes this month’s auction cycle w/the 7 Y auction. W/out news the third auction usually rallies the mkt. I will play for this today and want to buy into weakness in anticipation of this. Stk mkts round the globe outside of China are higher off of yesterday’s FOMC announcement that was taken as dovish w/an interest rate increase coming later rather than sooner. The option play in Treasuries has been to the put side, which is not surprising given the tendency to sell once the auction is complete. Today’s news will be dominated by the new way to calculate GDP. Don’t like the GDP numbers. Then change the way they are calculated to get the numbers you desire/need to support the current government meme that the economy is growing and will continue to do so. Today’s news: GDP is expected at 2.9%, the Deflator at 1.5%, Jobless Claims at 272 K, N Gas Inventories at 53 B. The news focus should be Jobless Claims, the newly formulated GDP and the direction of the ES. I see resistance at 126-24/28 and support at 126-08/12 to get started this AM. Will plan on trading this range. First sell is 126-23/27 followed by 126-31/127-03. Plan on a cover at 126-16 OB. First buy is 126-12/16 followed by 126-05/09. Plan on an exit at 126-23 OB.

ZB R1-R4: 154-00-154-01, 154-05-154-07, 154-09-154-12, 154-16-154-21

ZB S1-S4: 153-20-153-21, 153-13-153-16, 153-03-153-09, 152-28-153-00

ES R1-R4: 2103-2105, 2109-2110, 2113-2117, -

ES S1-S4: 2093-2095, 2085-2087, 2075-2080, -

ES Comments: Was the rally over the last two days just the monthly FOMC play or is the mkt higher off of expectations of future growth in our economy. Should get our answers today. The macroeconomic news on general is coming in below forecasts about 90% of the time. The major economic news is being manipulated right in front of our eyes as the government gets the numbers they need to support their position that the economy is growing. Today’s changed GDP will be scrutinized to see what numbers have been massaged to derive the numbers this morning. The mkt expects that growth will be revised higher. The question is how much. The OVN mkts were quiet w/China’s mkts lower given the lack of PBOC/governmental support for their mkts. The rest of the world traded higher following the US’s lead. Today’s news: GDP is expected at 2.9%, the Deflator at 1.5%, Jobless Claims at 272 K, N Gas Inventories at 53 B. The news focus should be Jobless Claims and the newly formulated GDP. If the mkt does trade higher today then the FOMC tendencies will take a 2nd seat to Fed mkt support/fundamentals. I think the rally was FOMC based and that today’s GDP numbers will be dismissed as manipulated. I believe that the mkt will find sellers at 2103/07 this AM and like the sht side of the mkt better as the mkt opens this morning. If the GDP numbers are higher than the consensus, the FE will be able to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. I see resistance at 2103/07 and support at 2090/95 to get started this AM. Down to the GDP news. First sell is 2104/06 followed by 2109/11. Plan on a cover at 2095 OB. First buy is 2094/96 followed by 2089/91. Plan on an exit at 2104 OB.