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Trade Date: 4/22/2014 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-275-123-285, 123-205-124-00, 124-035-124-04, 124-08-124-12

ZN S1-S4: 123-20-123-22, 123-16-123-18, 123-11-123-12, 123-04-123-08

ZN/ZB Comments: Today’s mkt will have the full complement of players as the EU/UK return from Easter Monday. Biden is on his way to the Ukraine. Hard to see that anything will change between the Ukraine and Russia after his visit. So the political unrest should continue, which will add some support to Treasuries. Little news to drive today’s trading in Treasuries. The focus should be the direction of the ES and the 2 Y auction. The 2 Y auction usually yields a sideways to higher mkt. I think that will be the case today. I expect a trading range mkt to develop w/buyers at 123-16/20 and sellers at 123-28/124-00. Will play for that range. Today’s news: FHFA Housing Price Index at +.3%, Existing Home Sales at 4.56 M, Richmond Fed at 0. The news focus will be Existing Home Sales, FHFA Housing Price Index, then Richmond Fed. First sell will be 123-27/31 followed by 124-03/07. Plan on an exit at 123-23 OB. First buy is 123-17/21 followed by 123-09/13. Plan on an exit at 123-27 OB. That said, if the ES sells this AM, it may take 123-25’s to get off a long.

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ZB R1-R4: 134-03-134-04, 134-08-134-11, 134-13-134-18, 134-20-134-24

ZB S1-S4: 133-23-133-25, 133-19-133-20, 133-13-133-15, 133-04-133-08



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ES R1-R4: 1868-1870, 1875-1877, 1880-1882, -

ES S1-S4: 1860-1861, 1855-1857, 1850-1852, -

ES Comments: The ES is pointed higher this AM and is poised to retest current resistance at 1868/70, and maybe the mkt number at 1875. If 1875 falls, the recent contract high is within reach. We are at resistance, the top of the trading range is 1868/70. If this holds, the bottom of the trading range (1805/1810) becomes a legitimate trading target. Not much in the way of news this AM. Earnings reports from MacDonald’s, Lockheed and Comcast will probably carry more weight than this AM’s economic news. Today’s news: FHFA Housing Price Index at +.3%, Existing Home Sales at 4.56 M, Richmond Fed at 0. The news focus will be earning’s reports, Existing Home Sales, FHFA Housing Price Index, then the Richmond Fed. The easiest trade to call this AM is failure to take out 1868/70. This is resistance and if it holds, the mkt should trade lower off of long liquidation and day trade shorts. If it comes out, HFT programs could take the mkt to new contract highs by the end of the week. The structure and volume movement favors a retest of 1868/70. Think the first trade of the day is a long. If 1868/70 then holds, can trade from the short side. First buy is 1860/62 followed by 1855/57. Plan on an exit at 1868 OB. First sell will be failure to take out 1868/70 followed by 1874/76. Plan on a cover at 1861 OB.

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