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Trade Date: 4/20/2014 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 124-16-124-175, 124-195-124-205, 124-23-124-245, 124-28-125-00

ZN S1-S4: 124-115-124-12, 124-08-124-095, 124-04-124-045, 123-28-124-00

ZN/ZB Comments: Today is a pre-Holiday market and this tends to dampen the trading activity as players tend not to build positions prior to a long weekend. The trading is generally left to exchange members and retail accounts. I expect a trading range market w/the early focus on the AM news and activity slowing into the close as players shutdown into the long weekend. The only thing I can see that could change this would be a big move in the ES and options expiration in that contract should dampen the volatility in that market too. Today’s news could add to the volatility momentarily, but probably won’t change today’s dynamics in and by themselves. The news items this AM usually aren’t market movers. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 315 K, Philly Fed at 10.0 and N Gas Inventories at +35 BCF. Will plan on a trading range and want to sell against 124-16/20 and to buy against 124-04/08 to get started. That said, support may be a bit higher at 124-08/12 and we might have to pay up to get off a long. Will update after the 0830 ET news. First sell is 124-16/20 followed by 124-23/27. Plan on a cover at 124-09 OB. First buy is 124-05/09 (may have to move it up to 124-09/13 depending on the 0830 news) followed by 123-29/124-01. Plan on an exit at 124-15 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 135-00-135-02, 135-04-135-06, 135-10-135-15, 135-20-135-24

ZB S1-S4: 134-24-134-25, 134-19-134-21, 134-15-134-17, 134-05-134-11



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ES R1-R4: 1855-1857, 1860-1862, 1865-1867, -

ES S1-S4: 1840-1842, 1835-1837, 1830-1832, -

ES Comments: Some news to stir up the mkts briefly. OVN news limited w/the focus on the Geneva talks between the EU/US and Russia w/the Ukraine present to see what their fate will be. It does have a 1938 feel to it given the West’s rush to appeasement. Nothing but chides from the US and the EU has been even quieter given Russia’s control over 30% of their energy supplies. Russia will only be restrained by the realities of taking over and occupying a hostile country w/porous borders. Russia’s iron hand in Afghanistan and Chechnya didn’t work. If they try the same in the Ukraine, I would expect the same outcome. Think Russia will get the West to pay the Ukraine’s gas bill and that will be about it. So down to the domestic news, which isn’t likely to impact the mkts in a meaningful way. The biggest dynamic this morning should be option expiration. Yesterday’s action in puts was at 1830/40 and in calls at 1855/60. The biggest OI number close to today’s prices is 1850 for both calls and puts. This suggests a close at 1850 when all is said and done. Should catch selling at 1855/60 and buying at 1840/45 to get started this AM based on options expiration. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 315 K, Philly Fed at 10.0 and N Gas Inventories at +35 BCF. Will plan on a trading range mkt today and will buy against projected support and sell against resistance to get started this AM. First sell is 1855/57 followed by 1859/61. Plan on a cover at 1847 OB. First buy is 1845/47 followed by 1840/42. Plan on an exit at 1855 OB.

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