Charlies Comments 01-12-2018

Trade Date: 1/12/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-00-123-02, 123-04-123-05, 123-07-123-08, 123-12-123-16

ZN S1-S4: 122-275-123-295, 122-24-122-26, 122-20-122-225, 122-12-122-16

ZN/ZB Comments: Equities are higher round the globe minus the Nikkei. It looks like Germany has finally formed a government too, which took the Euro higher. Higher equities usually caps any chance for a rally early in the session for TSY’s. And it is settlement day for this week’s auctions. Martin Luther King’s holiday is on Monday w/banks closed and trading hours shortened. Those that can hit the road for a 3 day weekend early will do so today. Put it all together and I believe we will see a pause day in TSY’s. The OVN news was limited. Today’s US news can move the mkts. Today’s news: CPI is expected at +.1%, Core CPI at +.2%, Retail Sales at +.5%, ex-Autos at +.4%, Business Inventories at +.3% and Baker Hughes Rig Count at ??? (previously 1098/924). The focus will be Core CPI and Retail Sales ex-Autos, IMO. Resistance begins at 123-02/05 and support is at 122-25/29 as the mkt opens. Will play for a trading range mkt this AM. First sell is 123-01/05 followed by 123-07/11. Cover at 122-25 OB. First buy is 122-25/29 followed by 122-17/21. Exit at 123-03 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 150-09-150-13, 150-15-150-17, 150-20-150-23, 150-28-151-03

ZB S1-S4: `50-01-150-04, 149-27-149-31, 149-20-149-24, 149-12-149-17



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ES R1-R4: 2777-2780, 2785-2785, 2790-2795, -

ES S1-S4: 2770-2772, 2765-2767, 2760-2762, -

ES Comments: The mkt is higher OVN w/the rest of the world following yesterday’s US lead. The buying was attributed to follow through buying by the rest of the world, BlackRock’s EPS beat and Germany’s newly formed government. The equity mkts are strong and getting stronger in spite of evermore articles saying the end of this rally is near. Bad news sells and those articles calling for a bear mkt to take over soon have been ignored to date. Trump’s tax cuts and industrial policies continue to support the long side of the mkt. The OVN news was limited. Today’s news can move the mkts. Today’s news: CPI is expected at +.1%, Core CPI at +.2%, Retail Sales at +.5%, ex-Autos at +.4%, Business Inventories at +.3% and Baker Hughes Rig Count at ??? (previously 1098/924). The focus will be Core CPI and Retail Sales ex-Autos, IMO. Resistance begins at 2777/80 and support is at 2765/70 as the mkt opens. For those of you in our options program, you should roll to the 2800 calls today. First buy is 2770/72 followed by 2765/67. Exit at 2777 OB. First sell is 2779/81 followed by 2784/86. Cover at 27770 OB.

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Charlies Comments 01-11-2018

Trade Date: 1/11/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-05-123-055, 123-07-123-095, 123-12-123-13, 123-16-123-20

ZN S1-S4: 123-00-123-015, 122-28-122-30, 122-24-122-26, 122-12-122-16

ZN/ZB Comments: The mkt awakens to a story that the Chinese didn’t say that they would stop buying Treasuries and both the Note and Bond rallied into the Asian session. Rumors and false stories are a fact of life in the futures world. The blatant “fake news” that has hit the national/international political scene is a late comer. While we won’t know for sure if the Chinese “halt” in buying TSY’s is true or not, it did get the Fed’s attention and perhaps Congress’s too. The Asian news centered on China’s denial. The EU/UK news again showed modest economic growth, but growth nonetheless. Today’s PPI news could stir the mkts. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 245 K, PPI at +.2%, Core PPI at +.2%, N gas Inventories at -318 BCF. The focus will be PPI, the direction of the ES and the 30 Y auction. Resistance begins at 123-00/04 and support is at 122-20/24. Will play for a trading range this AM s/buying into the 30 Y auction. First sell is 122-31/123-03 followed by 123-07/11. Cover at 122-25 OB. First buy is 122-21/25 followed by 122-13/17. Exit at 123-03 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 150-08-150-11, 150-15-150-17, 150-20-150-23, 150-28-151-01

ZB S1-S4: 149-28-150-00, 149-22-149-26, 149-16-149-20, 149-03-149-11



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ES R1-R4: 2754-2755, 2758-2760, 2765-2770, -

ES S1-S4: 2748-2751, 2744-2745, 2735-2740, -

ES Comments: Can the ES sell for two days in a row? It is the question facing today’s traders. Today’s PPI news usually doesn’t move the mkts. Tomorrow Retail Sales number can. The OVN news from Asia was China’s rebuttal of yesterday’s story that China was halting their purchases of US Treasuries. Did China send a warning to the US about our TSY mkts? Or was it another rumor that is common in the futures mkts. Hard to say. The news from the EU/UK again showed modest economic growth. The hard data shows the world’s economy expanding. Today’s PPI news could stir the mkts. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 245 K, PPI at +.2%, Core PPI at +.2%, N gas Inventories at -318 BCF. The focus will be PPI. Resistance begins at 2755/60 and support is at 2745/50 as the mkt opens. The Globex session shows buying. I believe the mkt will retest the 2758/60 area. And since the mkt’s breakouts of late have come on low news days, today could take the mkt to higher prices. First buy is 2750/52 followed by 2746/48. Exi at 2759 OB. First sell is 2759/61 followed by 2764/666. Cover at 2751 OB.

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Charlies Comments 01-10-2018

Trade Date: 1/10/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 122-265-122-29, 122-305-123-00, 123-02-123-04, 123-08-123-12

ZN S1-S4: 122-20-122-225, 122-16-122-16, 122-12-122-12, 122-04-122-08

ZN/ZB Comments: China has said it would be cutting it purchases of US TSY’s and equities, the dollar and TSY’s sold making new lows for this move. If China follows this announced guidance, TSY’s have more selling in front of them. The debt service for the US Treasury will increase. IF the mkts eventually hit the historic interest rate norms, US debt service will approach 1 T. The profligate spending by the two previous administrations will curtail the Fed’s ability to spend. Today’s 10 Y auction won’t change the selling that entered the mkt OVN. Prices are headed lower. The biggest news was from China OVN. The economic news from the EU showed a decline in French IP and an increase in GB’s manufacturing production. Today’s US news is limited. Today’s news: Import Prices is expected at +.4%, Export Prices at +.3%, Wholesale Trade at +.7%, ATL Fed Business Inflation at ??? (previously at +2.1%) and Crude inventories at -3.9 MB’s. I don’t believe the news will play today in TSY’s. Resistance begins at 122-28/123-00 and support is at 122-20/23 as the mkt opens. I believe the first trade is a sht. If 122-20/22 then holds, can trade from the long side. First sell is 122-27/31 followed by 123-03/07. Cover at 122-21 OB. First buy is 122-17/21 followed by 122-09/13. Exit at 122-27 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 149-09-149-13, 149-16-149-20, 149-24-149-26, 149-29-150-04

ZB S1-S4: 149-03-149-04, 148-28-149-00, 148-20-148-24, 14812-148-16



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ES R1-R4: 2743-2745, 2749-2752, 2755-2760, -

ES S1-S4: 2735-2737, 2730-2732, 2725-2727, -

ES Comments: Mkts don’t go straight up forever. The ES has sold for two days or more 6 times since last summer. Will see if that is the case today. China said they would decrease their purchases of US TSY’s and the dollar, equities and TSY’s sold. Dollar denominated securities were dumped and shorted. Gold, the Euro and Yen were higher. If China follows through and they should for at least a couple of days, I believe equities can trade lower. We should have our answer in the first couple of hours of trading this AM. Past the Chinese news the rest of the OVN news was ignored as will be today’s US news. . Today’s news: Import Prices is expected at +.4%, Export Prices at +.3%, Wholesale Trade at +.7%, ATL Fed Business Inflation at ??? (previously at +2.1%) and Crude inventories at -3.9 MB’s. I don’t believe the news will play today in the equity mkts. Resistance begins at 2745/50 and support is at 2730/35 as the mkt opens. I like the sht side first. IF 2730/35 holds, I can trade from the long side of the mkt. First sell is 2744/46 followed by 2749/51. Cover at 2732 OB. First buy is 2735/37 followed by 2730/32. Exit at 2749 OB.

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Charlies Comments 01-09-2018

Trade Date: 1/9/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-155-123-175, 123-195-123-20, 123-235-123-24, 123-28-124-00

ZN S1-S4: 123-11-123-12, 123-08-123-095, 123-00-123-04, 122-24-122-28

ZN/ZB Comments: Equities round the globe are higher a was the dollar. The equity buying followed yesterday’s gains in the US equity mkts. Germany’s IP number was well above the forecast and was the biggest piece of news OVN. Little news on tap this AM. Down to the dynamics of the 3 Y auction that usually, but not always, favors higher prices in TSY’s. Today’s news: Small Business Optimism Index came in below expectations at 104.9 and JOLTs at 6.034 M. I believe the focus will be the direction of the ES. Resistance begins at 123-16/20 and support is at 123-04/10 as the mkt opens. Will play for a trading range mkt this AM w/an up bias given the 3 Y auction. First buy is 123-09/13 followed by 123-01/05 exit at 123-19 OB. First sell is 123-19/23 followed by 123-27/31. Cover at 123-09 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 151-16-151-18, 151-20-151-22, 151-24-151-26, 151-28-152-00

ZB S1-S4: 151-07-151-10, 151-03-151-04, 150-30-151-00, 150-20-150-24



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ES R1-R4: 2749-2750, 2755-2755, 2760-2765, -

ES S1-S4: 2743-2746, 2739-2741, 2735-2737, -

ES Comments: Will 2750 this AM? The structure and price activity says it will. Yesterday’s rally took the Globex session and the world’s equity mkts to new highs. This NY rally is strong. Some forecasts are calling for a 20% gain this year, which would take the ES to 3200+. Institutions are long and adding to positions as funds flow into their coffers. Can’t fight the tape. The OVN news was limited. Germany’s IP number was well above the forecast further supporting the economic growth projections for the EU. Buy stks! Today’s news: Small Business Optimism Index came in below expectations at 104.9 and JOLTs at 6.034 M. The focus will be whether the mkt can take out and hold 2750 or not, IMO. Resistance begins at 2750/55 and support is at 2740/45 as the mkt opens. Want to buy into early weakness and see if 2750 can be taken out. If not, can trade from the sht side of the mkt. First buy is 2744/46 followed by 2740/42. Exit at 2750 OB. OK to sell failure to take out and hold 2750 followed by 2754/56. Cover at 2742 OB.

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Charlies Comments 01-08-2018

Trade Date: 1/8/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-20-123-235, 123-28-123-285, 123-30-124-00, 124-025-124-08

ZN S1-S4: 123-155-123-17, 123-12-123-135, 123-04-123-08, 122-28-123-00

ZN/ZB Comments: It is a Monday w/little news OVN not scheduled today. Some cryptocurrencies made new all-time highs. German Factory Orders were lower than forecast and was about the only news OVN. Last week’s economic news was better than forecast and equities will probably trade that news this week. TSY’s are pointed lower driven by expectations for 3-4 interest rate increases in 2018. The economy is growing and appears to be accelerating. This lessens the need for protect/flight to quality securities. W/no news to drive today’s trading I believe the focus will be the direction of the ES. Resistance begins at 123-24/28 and support is at 123-12/16 as the mkt opens. Will play for a trading range mkt this AM. First sell is 123-23/27 followed by 123-31/124-03. Cover at 123-13 OB. First buy is 123-12/16 followed by 123-05/09. Exit at 123-23 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 152-04-152-06, 152-08-152-11, 152-15-152-16, 152-21-152-29

ZB S1-S4: 151-31-152-00, 151-26-151-29, 151-20-151-24, 151-12-151-17



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ES R1-R4: 2740-2742, 2744-2746, 2748-2750, -

ES S1-S4: 2735-2737, 2730-2732, 2725-2727, -

ES Comments: The ES made new contract highs on the Globex opening and was pointed lower when London opened. The London mkt found sellers and the ES hit 273650 before traders took profits. While the mkt is still pointed higher and is likely to make new highs and soon at that, it can sell. The selling is usually absorbed within two trading days. If the mkt does sell today, I would expect that the longer term buyers will add to their length. Little news OVN. The biggest piece of news came out OVN was Germany’s Factory Orders, which came in at a -.4%. The EU’s inflation numbers again were below the consensus forecasts. So no news scheduled this AM to stimulate the trading early in the session. I believe that technical will drive today’s trading. No news this morning. Resistance begins at 2742/46 and support is at 27332/36. Will play for a trading range mkt this AM and would like to sell 2745 OB and to buy 2732 OB. First sell is 2740/42 followed by 2745/47. Cover at 2735 OB. First buy is 2724/26 followed by 2730/32. Exit at 2745 OB.

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Charlies Comments 01-05-2018

Trade Date: 1/5/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-22-123-25, 123-275-123-285, 123-30-124-00, 124-025-124-08

ZN S1-S4: 123-15-123-18, 123-12-123-135, 123-04-123-08, 122-28-123-00

ZN/ZB Comments: Today should be the biggest news day of the month given no FOMC meeting this month. The economy is expanding. Economic forecasts are understating the actual numbers, which is common when the economy is expanding. Thursday’s ADP number beat the forecasts by 60 K jobs. Today’s NFP could also beat the consensus estimate of 190 K. The OVN news was limited. Equities round the globe are higher following yesterday’s lead by the US equity mkts. Today’s news should determine today’s mkts. Right now the NFP/Unemployment forecasts favor lower prices for TSY’s and gold. Today’s news: NFP is expected at 190 K, Unemployment rate 4.1%, Manufacturing Payrolls at 15 K, Earnings at +.3%, Ave. Workweek at 34.5 Hrs., International Trade at -50 B, Factory Orders at +1.1%, ISM Services at 57.6 and Baker Hughes Rig Count at ??? (previously at 1065/929). The focus should be NFP Unemployment, Factory Orders, ISM Services and the direction of the ES. As usual, if you know the news, you have today’s trade. Resistance begins at 123-22/28 and support is at 123-12/18 as the mkt opens. We recommend that you take our News Day Trade. Today is a news day trade. To maximize the gains off the news announcement, you will have to position before the news and then exit, if on the wrong side of the news on the first correction. If you want to scoop up a position off the reaction to the news a limit buy/sell ¾ to 1 point away from the mkt at the announcement usually gives you reasonable trade location and time to maneuver. For the 30 Y Bond place your limit buy/sell 1 to 1.5 points away from the mkt at the news release. Barring that, enter the mkt on the first correction post the announcement w/the news. Exit this trade, if the mkt doesn’t extend the current range. If this is too much to ask of one’s self, let the mkt settle down and trade development.

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ZB R1-R4: 152-11-152-13, 152-16-152-17, 152-20-152-24, 152-29-153-03

ZB S1-S4: 152-00-152-02, 151-28-151-29, 151-21-151-24, 151-12-151-17



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ES R1-R4: 2733-2735, 2740-2740, 2745-2750, -

ES S1-S4: 2726-2729, 2720-2723, 2710-2715, -

ES Comments: Stks round the globe are higher as is the ES OVN. The rest of the world followed yesterday’s US mkts. The US starts the equity mkts and the rest of the world usually follows. I believe this was the case last night. The cuts in taxes for corporations and individuals has changed the valuations for stks. This gives the mkts more upside. And there is a lot of money that needs to be invested. Buy stks! The OVN news was limited, but generally supportive. Today’s news should tell today’s tape. Today’s news: NFP is expected at 190 K, Unemployment rate 4.1%, Manufacturing Payrolls at 15 K, Earnings at +.3%, Ave. Workweek at 34.5 Hrs., International Trade at -50 B, Factory Orders at +1.1%, ISM Services at 57.6 and Baker Hughes Rig Count at ??? (previously at 1065/929). The focus should be NFP Unemployment, Factory Orders and ISM Services. Resistance begins at 2733/35 and support is at 2720/23 as the mkt opens. Given the uncertainty of actually knowing today’s news, we recommend that you that you trade our News Day Trading Strategy. Today is a news day trade. To maximize the gains off the news announcement, you will have to position before the news and then exit, if on the wrong side of the news on the first correction. If you want to scoop up a position off the reaction to the news a limit buy/sell 10 points away from the mkt at the announcement usually gives you reasonable trade location and time to maneuver. Barring that, enter the mkt on the first correction post the announcement w/the news. Exit this trade, if the mkt doesn’t extend the current range. If this is too much to ask of one’s self, let the mkt settle down and trade development.

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Charlies Comments 01-04-2018

Trade Date: 1/4/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-215-123-23, 123-24-123-26, 123-28-123-30, 124-00-124-04

ZN S1-S4: 123-16-123-17, 123-12-123-135, 123-04-123-08, 122-28-123-00

ZN/ZB Comments: Equities round the globe are higher and TSY’s are lower. The inverse relationship continues and when in effect, it can impact the mkt for at least the first two hours of trading. TSY’s are set to retest support this AM, and if the ES continues to rally w/momentum, I believe support can be taken out this AM. We have some news this AM that could move the mkt lower this AM too. The economic news continues to beat the consensus estimates and could this AM. The news OVN was limited. The EU news was close to the forecasts. Today’s news: ADP Private Employment is expected at 188 K, Jobless Claims at 240 K, PMI Services at 52.4, N Gas Inventories at ??? (previously -221 CF) and EIA Crude Inventories at -5.2 MB’s. The focus should be ADP Private Employment and the direction of the ES, IMO. Resistance begins at 123-21/25 and support is at 123-12/16 as the mkt opens. I like the sht side of the mkt first this AM. IF 123-12/16 does hold, I can trade from the long side of the mkt. First sell is 123-19/23 followed by 123-27/31. Cover at 123-17 OB. First buy is 123-09/13 followed by 123-01/05. Exit at 123-23 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 152-01-152-04, 152-07-152-08, 152-12-152-13, 152-16-152-24

ZB S1-S4: 151-24-151-28, 151-19-151-21, 151-15-151-17, 151-07-151-12



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ES R1-R4: 2716-2720, 2725-2725, 2730-2730, -

ES S1-S4: 2709-2712, 2705-2707, 2700-2702, -

ES Comments: Stks round the globe are higher w/the rest of the world following the US lead. The DOW is set to take out 25,000 this AM. If this happens, I believe the DOW will close above 25,000. Wall Street is forecasting a strong mkt for 2018 w/JPM calling for a 3000 ES before the buying is over. The trend is higher. Can’t fight the tape. If the buying stops, the most forecasts see the mkt transitioning into a bracket. The news OVN was limited. The EU had most of the economic news and this news was close to the forecast. Today’s news: ADP Private Employment is expected at 188 K, Jobless Claims at 240 K, PMI Services at 52.4, N Gas Inventories at ??? (previously -221 CF) and EIA Crude Inventories at -5.2 MB’s. The focus should be ADP Private Employment. Resistance begins at 2716/20 and support is at 2707/10 as the mkt opens. I want to buy into early weakness and see if 2720/25 can be taken out. IF not, I can trade from the sht side. First buy is 2711/13 followed by 2706/08. Exit at 2719 OB. First sell is 2719/21 followed by 2724/26. Cover at 2710 OB.

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Charlies Comments 01-03-2018

Trade Date: 1/3/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-265-123-085, 123-30-124-00, 124-025-124-04, 124-08-124-12

ZN S1-S4: 123-20-123-215, 123-16-123-17, 123-12-123-135, 123-04-123-08

ZN/ZB Comments: TSY’s are higher OVN as are equities. The ES is flirting w/2700 and did make a new contract high at 269875. The news starts today and culminates on Friday w/the NFP numbers. Today’s focus will ISM Manufacturing and the FOMC minutes. The FOMC minutes will be poured over to glean information on how many interest rate increases will the Fed make in 2018. Right now the guidance is for 3 interest rate increases for 2018. Today’s news can shake the mkts, but probably won’t change much given Friday’s NFP numbers. Today’s news: Motor Vehicle Sales is expected at 17.5 M vehicles, ISM Manufacturing at 58.0, ISM Manufacturing Prices at 64.8, Construction Spending at +.6% and the FOMC minutes. The focus should be ISM Manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Sales and the FOMC minutes. Resistance begins at 123-265/124-00 and support is at 123-16/20. Will plan on a trading range mkt this AM and would like to sell against 124-00 and buy against 123-20. First sell is 123-27/31, 124-03/07. Cover at 123-21 OB. First buy is 123-17/21 followed by 123-09/13. Exit at 123-27 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 152-04-152-06, 152-08-152-10, 152-12-152-13, 152-16-152-23

ZB S1-S4: 151-23-151-26, 151-17-151-19, 151-12-151-12, 151-00-151-07



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ES R1-R4: 2699-2700, 2705-2707, 2710-2712, -

ES S1-S4: 2692-2695, 2689-2690, 2685-2687, -

ES Comments: The ES made new contract highs in the Globex session at 269875 and is poised to take out 2700 early in the session. Stks are still on an upward trajectory supported by Trump’s tax bill and regulatory cuts. The US economy has been on hold for the last 8 years and businesses are moving to a growth posture from a protect and hold stance. The repatriation of 2 T+ and the cut in the corporate tax rate will provide the cash for this expansion. This week’s news should further support the growth scenario that is driving the mkts since Trump’s election. Little news OVN. Today’s news can move the mkts and should be friendly for equities. Friday’s news is the week’s news focus and is also expected to be equity friendly. Today’s news: Motor Vehicle Sales is expected at 17.5 M vehicles, ISM Manufacturing at 58.0, ISM Manufacturing Prices at 64.8, Construction Spending at +.6% and the FOMC minutes. The focus should be ISM Manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Sales and the FOMC minutes. Resistance begins at 2700/05 and support is at 2687/92 as the mkt opens. First buy is 2694/96 followed by 2690/92. Exit at 2700 OB. OK to sell failure to take out and hold 2700 followed by 2704/06. Cover at 2692 OB.

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Charlies Comments 01-02-2018

Trade Date: 1/2/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-30-124-00, 124-025-124-04, 124-065-124-08, 124-11-124-15

ZN S1-S4: 123-24-123-26, 123-20-123-225, 123-155-123-17, 123-08-123-12

ZN/ZB Comments: Happy New Year! The start of the trading year finds the dollar and TSY’s lower and gold, the Euro, crude and the ES higher. The longer term trends for TSY’s, the dollar and indexes continue. Crude and gold appear to be in a trading range w/the bracket in crude moving higher given economic growth and ME tensions. TSY’s are pointed lower this AM. IF equities manage a rally this AM, I believe the selling in TSY’s will continue. The news OVN was mixed. Banking Holidays have closed banks in the EU and Japan. The Holidays continue today for many round the globe. The economic news OVN was mixed for the EU/UK. Today’s news is limited to Market’s Manufacturing PMI, which usually doesn’t impact the mkts. Today’s news: Manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.0. The news focus will be Manufacturing PMI and the direction of the ES, IMO. Resistance begins at 123-28/124-00 and support is a t123-20/26 as the mkt opens this AM. I like the sht side of the mkt first this AM. If 123-20/24 holds, I can trade from the long side of the mkt. First sell is 123-27/31 followed by 124-03/07. Cover at 123-24 OB. First buy is 123-20/24 followed by 123-13/17. Exit at 123-31 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 152-18-152-20, 152-22-152-25, 152-28-152-29, 153-00-153-04

ZB S1-S4: 152-06-152-10, 152-00-152-02, 151-25-151-28, 151-15-151-21



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ES R1-R4: 2683-2685, 2688-2690, 2694-2698, -

ES S1-S4: 2677-2680, 2673-2675, 2665-2670, -

ES Comments: Well I missed my prog for the ES high for 2017 at 2700. The high was 2698. Bummer! Most of the financial press is forecasting a higher mkt for 2018 given the tax cuts and 8 years of economic below normal growth. I believe that 2018 will bring higher stk prices or worst case a bracketed mkt w/stk prices on hold until earnings catch up to today’s prices. Mkts can work off excess by trading sideways for a period of time. They don’t have to break to remove excess. Little new OVN. Today’s news is limited. Down to momentum, IMO. Banking holidays abound round the globe. This could cut the trading volumes today. Today’s news: Manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.0. The news focus will be Manufacturing PMI. Resistance begins at 2685/90 and support is at 2670/75 as the mkt opens this AM. I like the long side first, but can sell failure to take out and hold 2685/90. First sell is 2684/86 followed by 2689/91. Cover at 2676 OB. First buy is 2679/81 followed by 2674/76. Exit at 2684 OB.

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Charlies Comments 12-22-2017

Trade Date: 12/22/2017 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 123-175-123-19, 123-20-123-215, 123-23-123-245, 123-26-123-30

ZN S1-S4: 123-12-123-14, 123-08-123-08, 123-04-123-04, 123-00-123-00

ZN/ZB Comments: Today is Christmas Eve and options expiration and both of these dynamics tend to freeze the mkt’s activity. We have lots of news today that could stir things up. Will see how the news plays vs option expiration/Christmas Eve. Yesterday’s option play was the 1235 puts and 1237 calls. This favors a close at 123-20. The play in the 30 Y was 1505/151, which favors a close at 150-24. The OVN news was limited. Today’s news could shake the mkts. Today’s news: Durable Orders is expected at +2.0%, Ex-Transportation at +.5%, Core Capital Goods at +.4%, Personal Income at +.4%, Personal Spending at +.3%, New Home Sales at 650 K, Consumer Sentiment at 97.0, KC Fed at ??? (previously 16), Baker Hughes at ???(1168/930). The focus should be Durable Orders, Personal Spending, Consumer Sentiment and Option Expiration. Resistance begins at 123-20/24 and support is at 123-08/12 as the mkt opens. Will play for a trading range mkt. Cash Notes and Bonds stop trading at 1300 CST today. Futures will trade normal hours. First sell is 123-23/27 followed by 123-31/124-03. Cover at 124-17 OB. First buy is 123-13/17 followed by 123-05/09. Exit at 123-23 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 151-03-151-04, 151-06-151-08, 151-11-151-14, 151-17-151-23

ZB S1-S4: 150-28-150-29, 150-22-150-26, 150-19-150-20, 150-12-150-16



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ES R1-R4: 2693-2695, 2698-2700, 2705-2710, -

ES S1-S4: 2686-2689, 2681-2685, 2670-2675, -

ES Comments: Will 2700 be hit today or will traders delay this projected event till 12/29? We will see. Little news OVN. Equities were mixed w/Asia up and the EU’s mkts lower. All eyes will be on the ES today. Will resistance at 2695/98 hold as it has the last 4 trading days or not. WE have news that if as forecast, is friendly for equities. The passage of Trump’s tax bill is also supportive. Conditions are right for new contracts highs today. Today’s news: Durable Orders is expected at +2.0%, Ex-Transportation at +.5%, Core Capital Goods at +.4%, Personal Income at +.4%, Personal Spending at +.3%, New Home Sales at 650 K, Consumer Sentiment at 97.0, KC Fed at ??? (previously 16), Baker Hughes at ???(1168/930). The focus should be Durable Orders, Personal Spending and Consumer Sentiment. Resistance begins at 2695/98 and support is at 2680/85 as the mkt opens. Still like the long side of the mkt this AM, but can sell failure to take out and hold 2695/98. First buy is 2685/87 followed by 2680/82. Exit at 2695 OB. First sell is 2694/96 followed by 2699/2701. Cover at 2687 OB.

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Trade Date: 1/17/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 122-28-122-295, 122-315-123-005, 123-02-123-05, 123-08-123-12

ZN S1-S4: 122-1225-122-25, 122-16-120, 122-08-122-12, 122-00-122-04

ZN/ZB Comments: The ES is pointed higher and TSY’s are trading lower. The inverse relationship between equities and TSY’s is intact OVN and is likely to continue for the first couple of hours this morning. Actual and anticipated higher interest rates have taken TSY’s lower. The Fed’s guidance has projected 3 interest rate hikes this year. Fed Governor Evans in a speech said that given the data the Fed may wait till June to raise rates as opposed to the expected bump in March. We will see. Little news OVN. We have news this morning that could move the mkts. Today’s news: Industrial Production is expected at +.4%, Manufacturing Production at +.3%, Capacity Utilization at 77.3, Housing Mkt Index at 73.0 and the Beige Book. The focus will be Industrial Production, the Beige Book and the direction of equities. Resistance begins at 122-28/123-00 and support is at 122-16/20 as the mkt opens. I like the sht side first. If 122-16/20 holds, I can trade from the long side. First sell is 122-27/31 followed by 123-03/07. Cover at 12221 OB. First buy is 122-17/21 followed by 122-09/13. Exit at 122-31 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 150-23-150-24, 150-27-150-29, 150-31-151-02, 151-06-151-12

ZB S1-S4: 150-14-150-17, 150-10-150-12, 150-04-150-08, 149-27-150-01



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ES R1-R4: 2794-2796, 2798-2800, 2805-2809, -

ES S1-S4: 2787-2790, 2784-2785, 2780-2782, -

ES Comments: Yesterday’s selling came to an end OVN in the ES. Equities round the globe are mixed. That said, the US equity mkts usually start the global moves. IF the US mkts rally today, I believe that equities round the globe will resume their rallies too. The economy is expected to grow by 3% or more in 2018. The tax cuts will increase corporate EPS and domestic investment. The proposed infrastructure bill will add to this growth via the construction sector. Buy stks! Little news OVN. Today’s news can move the mkts. Today’s news: Industrial Production is expected at +.4%, Manufacturing Production at +.3%, Capacity Utilization at 77.3, Housing Mkt Index at 73.0 and the Beige Book. The focus will be Industrial Production and the Beige Book. Resistance begins at 2795/2800 and support is at 2782/86 as the mkt opens. I like the long side of the mkt first. IF 2795/2800 does hold as resistance, I can turn seller. First buy is 2788/90 followed by 2783/85. Exit at 2799 OB. First sell is 2794/96 followed by 2799/2801. Cover at 2786 OB.

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