Charlies Comments 04-06-2018

Trade Date: 4/6/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 120-215-120-25, 120-27-120-28, 120-305-121-00, 121-03-121-08

ZN S1-S4: 120-16-120-175, 120-11-120-125, 120-07-120-08, 120-00-120-04

ZN/ZB Comments: Today is potentially the biggest news day of the month w/the Unemployment numbers hitting the tape at 0830 ET. Today’s NFP forecast is well below the ADP number that showed 241 K in new private employment. The NFP could come in higher than forecast. Once these numbers are out of the way Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at 1330 ET and this speech could impact the trading. And then there will be statements and comments from Chinese and US officials about Trump’s considering another 100 B in tariffs against China. News spikes after the Unemployment could also impact today’s trading. The OVN news was driven by Trump’s new comments about another 100 B in Chinese tariffs. Today’s news: NFP is expected at 175 K, Unemployment at 4.0%, Private Payrolls at 175 K, Manufacturing Jobs at 20 K, Earnings at +.3%, Work Week at 34.5 hrs., Baker Hughes Rig Count at ?/? (previously at 1127/993) and Powell’s speech at 1330 ET. The focus will be NFP, Unemployment, the direction of the ES and Powell’s speech. Today is a news day trade that carries extra risk. Because of that, we recommend our news day trade, if you want to trade the volatility associated w/today’s news. Today is a news day trade. To maximize the gains off the news announcement, you will have to position before the news and then exit, if on the wrong side of the news on the first correction. If you want to scoop up a position off the reaction to the news a limit buy/sell ¾ to 1 point away from the mkt at the announcement usually gives you reasonable trade location and time to maneuver. For the 30 Y Bond place your limit buy/sell 1 to 1.5 points away from the mkt at the news release. Barring that, enter the mkt on the first correction post the announcement w/the news. Exit this trade, if the mkt doesn’t extend the current range. If this is too much to ask of one’s self, let the mkt settle down and trade development.

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ZB R1-R4: 145-03-145-04, 145-07-145-10, 145-12-145-16, 145-20-145-24

ZB S1-S4: 144-25-144-28, 144-20-144-21, 144-16-144-18, 144-08-144-12



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ES R1-R4: 2648-2652, 2656-2660, 2664-2670, -

ES S1-S4: 2638-2640, 2630-2633, 2620-2626, -

ES Comments: Trump’s comments that he was considering an additional 100 B in tariffs against China. Equities responded w/a 50 point drop. The operative word was “considering” and the mkt recovered half of its OVN losses. Today’s mkts will be subject to news spikes as various government/administration officials respond to Trump’s comments. Remember that so far Trump’s tariffs against China are proposals, not law yet. Negotiating ploys or soon to become law? Hard to say at this point. Kudlow’s comments, if as his previous statements, could rally the mkt quickly. Comments to the contrary can take the mkt lower. Today’s news can move the mkts. Powell’s speech at 1330 ET can also impact the mkts. And in between the mkt can be subject to comments from different sources. Today’s news: NFP is expected at 175 K, Unemployment at 4.0%, Private Payrolls at 175 K, Manufacturing Jobs at 20 K, Earnings at +.3%, Work Week at 34.5 hrs., Baker Hughes Rig Count at ?/? (previously at 1127/993) and Powell’s speech at 1330 ET. The focus will be NFP, Unemployment and Powell’s speech. Today is a news day trade that carries extra risk. We recommend that you trade our news day trading strategy, if you want to play the volatility associated w/the news release. Today is a news day trade. To maximize the gains off the news announcement, you will have to position before the news and then exit, if on the wrong side of the news on the first correction. If you want to scoop up a position off the reaction to the news a limit buy/sell 10 points away from the mkt at the announcement usually gives you reasonable trade location and time to maneuver. Barring that, enter the mkt on the first correction post the announcement w/the news. Exit this trade, if the mkt doesn’t extend the current range. If this is too much to ask of one’s self, let the mkt settle down and trade development.

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Charlies Comments 04-05-2018

Trade Date: 4/5/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 120-215-120-235, 120-25-120-28, 120-30-121-01, 121-04-121-08

ZN S1-S4: 120-16-120-18, 120-11-120-125, 120-07-120-08, 120-00-120-04

ZN/ZB Comments: Stk mkts are higher and TSY’s/gold lower. The inverse relationship continues. And even when the ES was selling, the rallies in TSY’s were limited. TSY’s are headed lower because the Fed is raising interest rates. That said, two Fed Governors have recently stated that no more interest rate increases were needed at this time. The Fed is floating a new trial balloon about interest rates and the mkt’s response has been muted to date. We will see. Yesterday’s rally in stks was short covering. Yesterday’s comments about the trade wars centered on the limited impact of the proposed new tariffs on China. Most believe that the final results will be limited and that the war won’t escalate. Tomorrow’s NFP report tends to freeze the mkts until the release. Today’s news is limited to International Trade is expected at -56.7 B, Jobless Claims at 230 K and N Gas Inventories at -29 BCF. The focus should be the direction of the ES and the auction announcements. Resistance begins at 120-23/28 and support is at 120-12/18 as the mkt opens. Will play for a trading range mkt w/a down bias this AM. First sell is 120-19/23 followed by 120-27/31. Cover at 120-17 OB. First buy is 120-13/17 followed by 120-05/09. Exit at 120-23 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 145-07-145-11, 145-16-145-17, 145-19-145-20, 145-24-145-29

ZB S1-S4: 144-27-145-00, 144-21-144-24, 144-16-144-18, 144-08-144-12



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ES R1-R4: 2667-2674, 2678-2680, 2685-2690, -

ES S1-S4: 2650-2653, 2641-2645, 2630-2634, -

ES Comments: Equities are higher round the globe outside of China’s mkts. While yesterday’s rally was certainly driven by sht covering, the comments and news about a tariff war between China and the US were relatively benign. And the proposed tariffs are 1/400th of the US economy and 1/200th of China’s economy. Tariffs certainly aren’t good for prices/trade, but if your objective is to bring manufacturing back to the US, tariffs can help push that goal. As per yesterday’s mkt comments the news spikes are likely to come from government officials/principals again today. Not much news OVN nor today. Tomorrow’s NFP numbers tend to hold the mkt in check. Today’s news is limited to International Trade is expected at -56.7 B, Jobless Claims at 230 K and N Gas Inventories at -29 BCF. Resistance begins at 2667/75 and support is a t2650/55 as the mkt opens. I believe today’s mkt will pause and yield a trading range day. First sell is 2664/69 followed by 2674/79. Cover at 2651 OB. First buy is 2651/56 followed by 2641/46. Exit at 2669 OB.

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Charlies Comments 04-04-2018

Trade Date: 4/4/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 121-05-121-06, 121-08-121-085, 121-10-121-12, 121-16-121-20

ZN S1-S4: 120-305-121-01, 120-27-120-28, 120-24-120-25, 120-16-120-20

ZN/ZB Comments: As per China’s warning, if the US imposed more tariffs on China, they would match the US tariff’s w/their own. The US imposed 50 B in new tariffs and China responded in kind w/50 B in tariffs against the US. Equities dumped OVN and TSY’s and gold rallied in response to such. The inverse relationship continues and will until the dust settles from these new tariffs. The mkt will be subject to news spikes as China and the US speak/respond to the other’s comments. The tariff wars can spill over into other arenas, and if they do, the selling can accelerate. Today’s news can impact the trading, but will probably be lost in the tariff news. Today’s news: ADP Private Employment is expected at 200 K, PMI Services at 54.1, Factory Orders at +1.7%, ISM Services at 59.0, EIA Crude Inventories at +1.4 MB’s. The focus will be tariff news, ADP Private Employment, Factory Orders, ISM Services and the direction of the ES. Resistance begins at 121-04/08 and support is at 120-25/30 as the mkt opens. I like the long side first (as long as the ES is selling). IF 121-08/12 holds, I can trade from the sht side. First sell is 121-07/11 followed by 121-15/19. Cover at 121-01 OB. First buy is 121-29/01 followed by 120-21/25. Exit at 121-07 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 146-13-146-16, 146-18-146-21, 146-25-146-28, 147-00-147-04

ZB S1-S4: 146-04-146-05, 145-27-146-00, 145-22-145-24, 145-13-145-20



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ES R1-R4: 2578-2583, 2586-2591, 2594-2600, -

ES S1-S4: 2565-2568, 2559-2561, 2550-2554, -

ES Comments: As per China’s warning, if the US imposed more tariffs on China, they would match the US tariff’s w/their own. The US imposed 50 B in new tariffs and China responded in kind w/50 B in tariffs against the US. Equities dumped OVN and TSY’s and gold rallied in response to such. . The mkt will be subject to news spikes as China and the US speak/respond to the other’s comments. The tariff wars can spill over into other arenas, and if they do, the selling can accelerate. Today’s news can impact the trading, but will probably be lost in the tariff news. Today’s news: ADP Private Employment is expected at 200 K, PMI Services at 54.1, Factory Orders at +1.7%, ISM Services at 59.0, EIA Crude Inventories at +1.4 MB’s. The focus will be tariff news, ADP Private Employment, Factory Orders and ISM Services. Resistance begins 2580/86 and support is at 2560/65. Excess can be absorbed in the OVN mkts. IF the mkt can’t break 2553/60 early in the session, the mkt can rally. I believe rallies will be sold until the impact of the tariff wars is priced into the mkt. I like the sht side of the mkt first this AM. First sell is 2574/79 followed by 2584/89. Cover at 2551 OB. First buy is 2551/56 followed by 2541/46. Exit at 2574 OB.

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Charlies Comments 04-03-2018

Trade Date: 4/3/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 121-04-121-055, 121-06-121-09, 1`21-115-121-12, 121-16-121-20

ZN S1-S4: 121-00-121-01, 120-28-120-30, 120-24-120-255, 120-16-120-20

ZN/ZB Comments: Will the ES rally back today or not? Yesterday’s mkt was supported by the selling in equities, but the buying wasn’t as strong as one would expect. The buying over the last 5 days is tied to the selling in equities. IF the ES snaps back today, TSY’s could catch some strong selling. TSY’s are pointed lower given the Fed’s guidance to raise interest rates at least 2 more times this year. Higher interest rates are on the way unless our economy slips into a recession later this year. The OVN news was limited. Equities caught up w/the selling in the US yesterday. Today’s US news is limited to Motor Vehicle Sales which is expected at 17.0 M. This news rarely moves the mkts. Resistance begins at 121-04/08 and support at 120-28/121-00 as the mkt opens. I like the sht side of the mkt first this AM. Iv 120-24/28 then holds, I can trade from the long side. First sell 121-03/07 followed by 121-11/15. Cover at 120-29 OB. First buy is 120-25/29 followed by 120-17/21. Exit at 121-07 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 146-19-146-20, 146-24-146-25, 146-28-146-29, 147-00-147-04

ZB S1-S4: 146-12-146-13, 146-05-146-08, 145-30-146-02, 145-24-145-28



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ES R1-R4: 2590-2595, 2600-2602, 2605-2611, -

ES S1-S4: 2578-2580, 2570-2575, 2560-2565, -

ES Comments: Will the buyers emerge today and snap up the FANG’s at these lower prices? OR will a relief rally be sold by the larger players as they set their positions for the next round of selling? Today is the 3rd day. If the selling doesn’t start early in the session, some swing traders will cover their shorts. The OVN mkts sold catching up w/the selling in the US yesterday. JPM is still recommending that players buy the dips. Other big broker/dealers say to sell into strength because the selling isn’t over. Time will tell. Little news OVN. Today’s news, Motor Vehicle Sales, is expected at 17.0. This news usually doesn’t move the mkts. Resistance begins at 2595/2602 and support is at 2570/75 as the mkt opens. I can trade from either side this AM. First sell is 2594/99 followed by 2609/14. Cover at 2575 OB. First buy is 2576/81 followed by 2566/71. Exit at 2699 OB.

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Charlies Comments 04-02-2018

Trade Date: 4/2/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 121-02-121-045, 121-06-121-09, 121-105-121-12, 121-16-121-20

ZN S1-S4: 120-28-120-29, 120-24-120-255, 120-20-120-22, 120-12-120-16

ZN/ZB Comments: Europe is still on holiday and volumes and ranges are well below norms. The absence of the EU’s central banks usually leads to a trading range day or trend days, if the news is off the consensus opinion. WE do have US news today that can move the mkts. Down to today’s news. Today’s news: PMI Manufacturing is expected at 55.7, ISM Manufacturing at 60.0 and Construction Spending at +.5%. The news focus should be ISM Manufacturing and the direction of the ES. Resistance begins at 121-02/06 and support is at 120-24/28 as the mkt opens this AM. Will play for a trading range mkt w/a down bias. First sell is 121-01/05 followed by 121-08/12. Cover at 120-29 OB. First buy is 120-25/29 followed by 120-17/21. Exit at 121-05 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 146-12-146-15, 146-20-146-21, 146-24-146-28, 147-00-147-04

ZB S1-S4: 146-02-146-06, 145-28-146-00, 145-24-145-25, 145-13-145-20



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ES R1-R4: 2640-2642, 2650-2655, 2660-2665, -

ES S1-S4: 2630-2632, 2625-2627, 2616-2620, -

ES Comments: Will the selling in the FANG’s restart now that the 3 day weekend is behind us? The question of the day for traders. If the mkt gets hit w/trade war responses or escalations and the Fang’s get hit again, the equity mkts can get hit hard today. No news OVN. Europe is on holiday w/all banks closed. This usually kills activity or exaggerates the moves, if the news is off the consensus opinion. China’s response to US tariffs has been restrained to date. We have news that can move the mkts this morning. Today’s news: PMI Manufacturing is expected at 55.7, ISM Manufacturing at 60.0 and Construction Spending at +.5%. The news focus should be ISM Manufacturing. Resistance begins at 2640/45 and support is at 2620/25 as the mkt opens. Down to the news, IMO. First sell is 2634/39 followed by 2644/49. Cover at 2626 OB. First buy is 2621/26 followed by 2611/16. Exit at 2634 OB.

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Charlies Comments 03-29-2018

Trade Date: 3/29/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 121-01-121-02, 121-04-121-055, 121-075-121-08, 121-12-121-16

ZN S1-S4: 120-28-120-29, 120-24-120-255, 120-20-120-22, 120-12-120-16

ZN/ZB Comments: Today is settlement day post this week’s auctions and this usually yields a trading range day. It is also the day before a 3 day weekend, which usually yields a trading range mkt. And Cash TSY bonds close early today. Put it all together and I believe that today will be a pause/trading range day for TSY futures. Little news OVN past equities are higher round the globe as institutions jockey for today’s close that brings the EOW/EOM/EOQ. There is little incentive to sell stks today for money managers and this should support the ES today. We do have news that can move the mkts. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 228 K, Personal Income at +.4%, Personal Spending at +.2%, Core PCE at +.2%, Chicago PMI at 62.8, Consumer Sentiment at 102.0, N Gas Inventories at ??? (previously -86 BCF), Baker Hughes Rig Count at ??? (previously at 1156/995). The focus should be Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment and the direction of the ES. Resistance begins at 121-01/06 and support is at 120-24/28 as the mkt opens. Will play for a trading range mkt this AM. First sell is 121-00/04 followed by 121-07/11. Cover at 120-25 OB. First buy is 120-25/29 followed by 120-17/21. Exit at 121-03 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 146-05-146-08, 146-10-146-12, 146-14-146-16, 146-20-146-27

ZB S1-S4: 145-28-145-29, 145-24-145-25, 145-19-145-20, 145-13-145-16



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ES R1-R4: 2620-2626, 2630-2634, 2638-2647, -

ES S1-S4: 2609-2613, 2601-2607, 2587-2594, -

ES Comments: Equities rallied round the globe OVN as players flatten out in front of a 3-4 day holiday depending upon where one resides. Profit taking, window dressing for the EOW/EOM/EOQ tends to rally mkts into the close. I believe that will be the case today. The OVN news was limited. Today’s news can move the mkts. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 228 K, Personal Income at +.4%, Personal Spending at +.2%, Core PCE at +.2%, Chicago PMI at 62.8, Consumer Sentiment at 102.0, N Gas Inventories at ??? (previously -86 BCF), Baker Hughes Rig Count at ??? (previously at 1156/995). The focus should be Personal Spending, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment. Resistance begins at 2620/25 and support is at 2600/05 as the mkt opens. Will play for an up mkt this AM. IF 2625/30 is rejected, I can trade from the sht side of the mkt. First buy is 2606/11 followed by 2596/2601. Exit at 2624 OB. First sell is 2624/29 followed by 2634/39. Cover at 2606 OB.

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Charlies Comments 03-28-2018

Trade Date: 3/28/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 121-075-121-08, 121-105-121-12, 121-16-121-165, 121-20-121-24

ZN S1-S4: 121-00-121-015, 120-28-120-305, 120-24-120-25, 120-16-120-20

ZN/ZB Comments: Will the swelling in equities continue today or not. The Easter Holiday will shut the mkts down on Friday and the mkt usually rallies into 3 day weekends. It is also the EOW/EOM/EOQ. If the selling is going to continue, today is the day, IMO. A lower stk mkt will support TSY’s today. It is also the 7 Y auction, which tends to support the mkts. The news OVN was limited w/the world’s focus on the selloff in the US mkts. WE have some news today that can impact the trading. Today’s news: GDP is expected at 2.7%, the Deflator at 2.3%, Real Consumer Spending at 3.8%, International Trade at -74.0 B, Corporate Profits at ??? (previously 9.8%), Retail Inventories at ??? (previously +.8%), Wholesale Inventories at ??? (previously +.5%), Pending Home Sales at +3.0%, Crude Inventories at +.5 MB’s. The focus should be GDP and the direction of the ES. Resistance begins at 121-04/08 and support is at 120-24/28 as the mkt opens. Will play for a trading range mkt w/an up bias given the 7 Y auction. First sell is 121-03/07 followed by 121-11/15. Cover at 121-00 OB. First buy is 120-29/121-01 followed by 120-21/25. Exit at 121-03 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 146-04-146-09, 146-12-146-16, 146-20-146-24, 146-28-147-00

ZB S1-S4: 145-28-145-30, 145-20-145-24, 145-12-145-16, 145-05-145-10



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ES R1-R4: 2624-2625, 2630-2635, 2640-2645, -

ES S1-S4: 2610-2615, 2605-2608, 2595-2600, -

ES Comments: Will the selling continue today or not? The question that faces traders today is continuation or a pause day. Usually trend days are followed by pause days. Will see if that is the case today. The Easter Holiday/3 day weekend starts on Friday. The EOW/EOM/EOQ also arrives tomorrow. Both of these events tend to pause/rally the mkt into Thursday’s close. If the selling is to continue today, it should start early in the session. Little news OVN past the commentary on yesterday’s mkt and the selling in the FANG’s. We do have news that can impact the trading. Today’s news: GDP is expected at 2.7%, the Deflator at 2.3%, Real Consumer Spending at 3.8%, International Trade at -74.0 B, Corporate Profits at ??? (previously 9.8%), Retail Inventories at ??? (previously +.8%), Wholesale Inventories at ??? (previously +.5%), Pending Home Sales at +3.0%, Crude Inventories at +.5 MB’s. The focus should be the GDP numbers. Resistance 2625/30 and support is at 2600/05 as the mkt opens. I believe the mkt has one short left in the mkt this AM. IF 2600/05 then holds, I can trade from the long side of the mkt. sell is 2629/34 followed by 2639/44. Cover at 2616 OB. First buy 2611/16 followed byy2601/06. Exit at 2629 OB.

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Charlies Comments 03-26-2018

Trade Date: 3/26/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 120-16-120-165, 120-18-120-21, 120-235-120-24, 120-275-121-00

ZN S1-S4: 120-12-120-13, 120-07-120-08, 120-03-120-04, 119-28-120-00

ZN/ZB Comments: Equities round the globe are higher outside of China’s mkt. The talk of a trade war w/China reversed over the weekend w/the trade deal between the US and S Korea and statements from Mnuchin that a trade war w/China would be averted. Stks rallied and TSY’s sold on this news. IF it wasn’t an auction week, the trade in TSY’s would be easy. You would sell TSY’s and be done w/it. IT is an auction week and the Dealers can’t move paper in a down mkt. Since last fall we haven’t been able to count on a strong 2 Y auction supporting the mkt. The support, when missing on the sht end, has come on the intermediate term paper. We will see how this plays out this AM. Biggest news over the weekend was that the trade wars have been averted. Today’s news is minimal. Today’s news: Chicago Fed National Activity Index is expected at +.05%, Dallas Fed at 30.9. The focus will be the direction of the ES and news releases about the state of US/Chinese negotiations to avert a trade war. Resistance begins at 120-16/20 and support is at 120-08/12 as the mkt opens. I like the sht side of the mkt first this AM. First sell is 120-15/19 followed by 120-23/27. Cover at 120-09 OB. First buy is 120-09/13 followed by 120-01/05. Exit at 120-19 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 144-15-144-16, 144-19-144-20, 144-23-144-26, 144-30-145-02

ZB S1-S4: 144-06-144-08, 144-03-144-05, 143-29-144-00, 143-20-143-25



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ES R1-R4: 2633-2635, 26-40-2645, 2650-2655, -

ES S1-S4: 2620-2625, 2615-2618, 2610-2612, -

ES Comments: Trade wars are beginning and equities dumped. Over the weekend the US reaches a trade deal w/S Korea and Mnuchin statement’s that negotiations w/China were going well turned the mkts and the ES recouped most of Friday’s losses. IF the buying continues this AM, a new round of selling has been averted, IMO. The mkt needs to quickly move through 2740 quickly this AM to confirm the buying. The weekend news was about the turnaround in the potential for trade wars. No news on deck this AM. Today’s news: Chicago Fed National Activity Index is expected at +.05%, Dallas Fed at 30.9. The focus will be news releases about trade wars between China and the US. Resistance begins at 2735/40 and support is at 2715/20. Can trade from either side of the mkt this AM. First sell is 2734/39 followed by 2744/49. Cover at 2721 OB. First buy is 2716/21 followed by 2706/11. Exit at 2739 OB.

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Charlies Comments 03-23-2018

Trade Date: 3/23/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 120235-120-25, 120-27-120-28, 120-315-121-005, 121-04-121-08

ZN S1-S4: 120-175-120-19, 120-145-120-16, 120-12-120-125, 120-04-120-08

ZN/ZB Comments: Which way will the ES trade today? Know the answer and you have the early trade in TSY’s. The trade wars have started. China retaliated w/3 B in tariffs on US goods. I think that China’s response was measured and that they know they have a lot to lose when their thefts are exposed. An d a lot of their trade practices are hard to defend. The tariff wars probably won’t be as advertised. Little news OVN. Todays’ news could impact the trading. Today’s news: Durable Orders is expected at +1.7%, Ex-Transportation at +.6%, Core Capital goods at +.7%, New Home Sales a t620 K, B-H Rig Counts at ??? (previously at 1209/990). The news, if as forecast would be supportive for equities. Resistance begins at 120-20/24 and support is at 120-12/16 as the mkt opens. Will play for another trading range day. First sell 120-19/23 followed by 120-27/31. Cover at 120-13 OB. First buy is 120-09/13 followed by 120-01/05. Exit at 120-23 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 144-24-144-28, 145-00-145-02, 145-05-145-08, 145-11-145-16

ZB S1-S4: 144-19-144-20, 144-16-144-17, 144-12-144-14, 144-04-144-09



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ES R1-R4: 2640-2643, 2648-2651, 2658-2663, -

ES S1-S4: 2630-2632, 2625-2628, 2616-2622, -

ES Comments: The trade wars have started. China’s response has been restrained to date w/only 3 B worth of targeted tariff’s. China has a hard time defending its tariffs, what a company has to give up to do business in China and the outright theft of everything they want. It looks like the Chinese are rolling w/the first punches thrown by the US. News out of Asia and the EU/UK was limited OVN. We have news that could move the mkts today. The news, if as forecast is positive to equities. Today’s news: Durable Orders is expected at +1.7%, Ex-Transportation at +.6%, Core Capital goods at +.7%, New Home Sales a t620 K, B-H Rig Counts at ??? (previously at 1209/990). Resistance begins at 2645/50 and support is at 2625/30 as the mkt opens. IF the selling doesn’t kick in early in the session, EOW short covering by traders is likely. I think there is one sht left this morning, but if the can’t take out2635, I believe the shts will begin to cover. First sell is 2649/54 followed by 2659/64. Cover at 2641 OB. First buy is 2636/41 followed by 2626/31. Exit at 2649 OB.

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Charlies Comments 03-22-2018

Trade Date: 3/22/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 120-115-120-14, 120-16-120-175, 120-195-120-205, 120-24-120-28

ZN S1-S4: 120-07-120-09, 12003-120-055, 120-00-120-02, 119-24-119-285

ZN/ZB Comments: Equities are lower round the globe in response to Trump’s tariffs against China. We don’t know what they will be, but if like his previous announcements, they will be up for negotiation. This will be the rumor leg of a rumor/fact trading situation, IMO. IF the selling in equities continues this AM, TSY’s can rally further. The news OVN was generally soft. ONLY GB beat one of its numbers w/Retail Sales higher than forecast. WE do have news this AM, but it will take a back seat to the Tariff announcement expected today. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 225 K, FHFA Housing Index at +.3%, PMI Composite at 55.2, PMI Manufacturing at 55.4, PMI Services at 55.7, LEI at +.3%, N Gas at -88 BCF, KC Fed at ??? (previously 17). Down to the direction of the ES and the tariff announcement, IMO. Resistance begins at 120-12/16 and support is at 120-00/04, maybe 120-08. Will play for a trading range mkt this AM. followed by 120-19/23. Cover at 120-05 OB. First buy is 120-01/05 followed by 119-25/29. Exit at 120-120-12 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 144-22-144-24, 144-29-145-00, 145-03-145-08, 145-11-145-16

ZB S1-S4: 144-10-144-14, 144-03-144-07, 143-29-144-00, 143-21-143-25



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ES R1-R4: 2703-2707, 2710-2713, 2715-2722, -

ES S1-S4: 2691-2694, 2683-2687, 2675-2681, -

ES Comments: Trump’s tariff pkg against the Chinese is at the top of today’s news lists. Only Japan’s mkt is up and Japan often trades against the rest of the world given their government’s support for Japanese bonds and equities. Trump’s tariff announcement for 50 B in penalties, if his leading statements from the past are a guide, Trump can modify his initial demands. We will see. The OVN news was mixed. Outside of GB’s Retail Sales most of the numbers were lower than forecast. The world is counting on US economic growth. Today’s news: Jobless Claims is expected at 225 K, FHFA Housing Index at +.3%, PMI Composite at 55.2, PMI Manufacturing at 55.4, PMI Services at 55.7, LEI at +.3%, N Gas at -88 BCF, KC Fed at ??? (previously 17). Down the tariff announcement, IMO. Resistance begins at 2705/10 and support is at 2690/95. I like the sht side of the mkt first this AM. IF the mkt can’t break 2685/90 early in the session, I can get long too. First sell is 2704/09 followed by 2714/19. Cover at 2791 OB. First buy is 2691/96 followed by 2681/86. Exit at 2709 OB. Chas

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Trade Date: 12/11/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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