Charlies Comments 04-11-2018

Trade Date: 4/11/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 121-00-121-02, 121-04-121-06, 121-08-121-12, 121-16-121-20

ZN S1-S4: 120-275-120-29, 120-24-120-245, 120-20-120-215, 120-12-120-16

ZN/ZB comments: The ES is lower and TSY’s/Gold are higher. The impending bombing of Syria is cited as the reason for the Globex moves in the mkts. Last year’s Syrian attack, when it occurred, took equities lower by 1% where buyers bought the dip. TSY’s and Gold were higher until the ES reversed. The rally in equities took both TSY’s and gold lower. Will see if this is the case, if the US does attack Syria. Little news out OVN. Inflation in China was lower, Draghi spoke at 0700 ET and the US does have some news this AM that probably won’t impact the mkts, if close to the forecast. It also appears that the US/China trade war will be averted w/both China and the US conciliatory statements yesterday. Today’s news: CPI is expected at unchanged, Core CPI at +.2%, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Index at ??? (previously +2.1%), Crude Inventories at -.6 MB’s, the 10 Y auction and the FOMC minutes. The focus should be CPI, the direction of the ES, the 10 Y auction and the FOMC minutes. Resistance begins at 121-00/04 and support is at 120-24/28 as the mkt opens. Will play for anther trading range day given the 10 Y auction. First sell 121-01/05 followed by 121-07/11. Cover at 120-29 OB. First buy is 120-25/29 followed by 120-17/21. Exit at 121-03 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 146-16-146-18, 146-20-146-25, 146-28-147-00, 147-03-147-08

ZB S1-S4: 146-07-146-10, 146-02-146-04, 145-28-146-00, 145-19-145-25



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ES R1-R4: 26334-2638, 2640-2644, 2650-2655, -

ES S1-S4: 2621-2626, 2612-2617, 2602-2608, -

ES Comments: Equities outside of China’s mkts are lower in anticipation of an attack on Syria by the US and maybe the UK and France. Last year’s Syrian attack took the ES down 1% followed by an intraday reversal as buyers bought the dip. This was the mkt’s mode until 1/29/18, when players quit buying every dip. The impending US attack on Syria, assuming it comes, is all over the press. Russia has threatened to shoot down the US missiles. We will anticipate a rumor fact trading situation w/the mkt sold into the attack, w/shorts covered after the attack is over. The OVN news was limited to speculation about the Syrian attack. Today’s CPI and FOMC news can move the mkts, but I believe the Syrian attack will overshadow the economic news. Today’s news: CPI is expected at unchanged, Core CPI at +.2%, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Index at ??? (previously +2.1%), Crude Inventories at -.6 MB’s, the 10 Y auction and the FOMC minutes. The focus should be the Syrian war talk, CPI, the direction of the ES and the FOMC minutes. Resistance begins at 2635/40 and support is at 2620/25. I believe there is one more short in the mkt and want to sell into early strength and see if 2620/25 can be taken out. IF not, I can trade from the long side. First sell is 2634/39 followed by 2644/49. Cover at 2621 OB. First buy is 2621/26 followed by 2611/16. Exit at 2644 OB.

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