Charlies Comments 04-17-2018

Trade Date: 4/17/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
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ZN R1-R4: 120-155-120-17, 120-19-120-20, 120-225-120-24, 120-28-121-00

ZN S1-S4: 120-07-120-10, 120-03-120-055, 119-28-120-00, 199-20-199-24

ZN/ZB Comments: The ES is higher OVN and TSY’s are in a trading range. The inverse relationship is usually in effect OVN and for the 1st 2 hours of the day session. Will higher equities take TSY’s lower this AM or not? The questions facing traders this AM. Stks are moving into earnings season and earnings should be strong, stronger than normal. This should boost equity prices over time. Higher interest rates are taking TSY’s lower. Higher equities can accelerate the selling in TSY’s. Little news OVN. China lowered its reserve requirements for banks, which will support their economy. Today’s news can move the mkts. Today’s news: Housing Starts is expected at 1.264 M, Permits at 1.315 M, Industrial Production at +.4%, Manufacturing IP at +.2%, Capacity Utilization at 78.0. The news focus should be Industrial Production and the direction of the ES. Resistance begins at 120-14/18 and support is at 120-06/10. I like the sht side of the mkt first this AM. If the mkt can’t take out 120-04/06, I can get long. First sell is 120-14/18 followed by 120-23/27. Cover at 120-05 OB. First buy is 120-01/05 followed by 119-25/29. Exit at 120-19 OB.

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ZB R1-R4: 145-17-145-18, 145-20-145-25, 145-28-146-02, 146-06-146-14

ZB S1-S4: 145-09-145-13, 145-06-145-08, 145-02-145-04, 144-28-145-00



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ES R1-R4: 2696-2702, 2707-2712, 2716-2723, -

ES S1-S4: 2686-2690, 2679-2682, 2670-2675, -

ES Comments: It is earnings season and the lower corporate tax rates will strengthen those reports. Equity prices are driven by earnings. Earnings are forecast to be higher. Equity prices should move higher over time, if the economic news stays as it has been to date. China lowered its banking reserve requirements, which should support their economy and stk prices too. The OVN selling stopped in Asia and the mkts reversed in the EU/UK. The US mkts are pointed higher this AM. Stops above 2700 are w/in reach. We have news this AM that could influence today’s mkts. The news, if as forecast, is supportive. Today’s news: Housing Starts is expected at 1.264 M, Permits at 1.315 M, Industrial Production at +.4%, Manufacturing IP at +.2%, Capacity Utilization at 78.0. The news focus should be Industrial Production. Resistance begins at 2700/05 and support is at 2680/85 as the mkt opens. I like the long side first and want to buy into early weakness. If 2700 holds as resistance, I can trade from the short side. First buy is 2686/91 followed by 2676/81. Exit at 2700 OB. OK to sell failure to take out and hold 2700. First sell is 2699/2704 followed by 2709/14. Cover at 2691 OB.

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