Charlies Comments 04-09-2018

Trade Date: 4/9/2018 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET)
ZN R1-R4: 120-29-121-00, 121-02-121-05, 121-08-121-10, 121-12-121-16

ZN S1-S4: 120-24-120-25, 120-20-120-215, 120-16-120-175, 120-08-120-12

ZN/ZB Comments: Trump tweeted that he thought that China and the US wouldn’t get into a trade war and equities round the globe rallied. TSY’s and gold were lower. The inverse relationship continues and is generally a factor in the first couple of hours of the day session. Will see if it holds this morning. The news over the weekend was limited to Trump’s tweets about the trade war and a report of an attack on a Syrian airbase by Israel. Today’s news slate is clean too. Down to administration and Chinese comments on a trade war. The mkts will be subject to news spikes. Earnings season is upon us and we will get to see the effects of the Trump tax cut. Early comments are forecasting an increase of 5.4% in earnings. No news today. The focus should be the direction of the stk mkts. Resistance begins at 120-30/121-02 and support at 120-20/25. Will play for a trading range mkt w/down bias. First sell is 120-29/121-01. Cover at 120-21 OB. First buy is 120-20/24 followed by 120-13/17. Exit at 120-31 OB.

ZB R1-R4: 145-26-145-30, 146-00-146-04, 146-08-146-11, 146-16-146-21

ZB S1-S4: 145-16-145-18, 145-09-145-12, 145-02-145-04, 144-25-145-00

ES R1-R4: 2628-2634, 2639-2644, 2650-2656, -

ES S1-S4: 2614-2617, 2608-2610, 2600-2605, -

ES Comments: Trump tweeted that he didn’t believe that a trade war would develop and that things would be worked out between China and the US and equities rallied round the globe. The mkt’s focus has been the trade war and the problems facing Tesla, Facebook and Trump’s tweets about Amazon. Facebook’s testimony before Congress starts tomorrow. And it is the start of earnings season w/earnings expected to increase by 5% or more due to tax cuts. The mkt will be subject to news spikes from the administration and China on the trade wars and reactions to earnings as they hit the mkts. The weekend news was limited to Trump’s trade war tweets and a probable Israeli attack on a Syrian airfield. Resistance begins at 2630/35 and support is at 2610/15 as the mkt opens this AM. I don’t have a strong feeling either way this AM. Will play for a trading range mkt w/an up bias given Trump’s trade war tweets. First buy is 2616/21 followed by 2606/11. Exit at 2629 OB. First sell is 2629/34 followed by 2639/44. Cover at 2616 OB.


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